Wea. The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. In this study, we investigate the highly unusual evolution of TC Eline and its daughter storm across the SWIO and southern Africa, highlight the significant impacts over southern Africa, and discuss regional forecasting efforts. Only about 5% of TCs in the southwest Indian Ocean over the last 50 years actually made landfall somewhere along the east coast of southern Africa. These events can be chronicled from the 2000 Cyclone Eline that caused 91 Given the continuing westward track and advice that there was no longer danger of wind gusts exceeding 120 km h−1, a “no warning” signal was issued at 0930 LT that day; however, the bulletin stressed that strong gusts up to 100 km h−1 and heavy rains would persist for some time. From 23 –25 February 2000 Cyclone Eline hit the eastern and southern parts of Zimbabwe. 5). D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. Contours show moisture convergence (shaded) or divergence (dashed) with an interval of 0.5 g kg−1 s−1, (a) Sea surface temperature (SST) during the week prior to the generation of Eline. U.K. Met. 1998) data. van Heerden, J., , and Taljaard J. J. , 1988: Africa and surrounding waters. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) to date, had an unusually zonal track, and penetrated exceptionally far inland over the interior plateau of southern Africa. Southern Africa is prone to devastating flood and drought episodes and pronounced climate variability on a range of scales, the coefficient of annual rainfall variation being greatest in southern Namibia. Email: cjr@egs.uct.ac.za. Weather forecasting elsewhere in southern Africa tends to rely on European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) or UKMO products combined with manual analyses based on any available local station data, and these forecasts are not archived. La Réunion uses the ECMWF IFS model and the French ARPEGE model, for which a version with approximately 40-km uniform resolution has been fitted to oceanic tropical regions. Local forecasters should be aware of the precursor synoptic conditions for TC landfall, the previous few months' rainfall, and the current state of the vegetation (and by inference, soil moisture), as well as regional SST anomalies, the orientation of the 28°C isotherm, and ENSO phase. 10) were also present in the tropical (subtropical and midlatitude) south Indian Ocean. Note that Fig. Rep. 342, 14 pp. Part I: Interannual composite patterns. Large-scale circulation patterns are also fundamental for influencing TC evolution. 0000000947 00000 n 1991; Jury and Pathack 1991). At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. The importance of this steering flow for enhancing the risk of SWIO TC making landfall on Mozambique is consistent with climatology and AGCM experiments (Vitart et al. We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. Oceanic Technol, 15 , 809–817. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. Positive anomalies are shaded. 0000000871 00000 n This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. (2003) used NCEP reanalyses and an AGCM forced with prescribed SST to find that SWIO TCs show a more zonal track during La Niña years, which significantly increases the chance of TC landfall in Mozambique. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States, Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models, Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas, Topographic Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones past a Mountain Range as Categorized by Idealized Simulations, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2. Zimbabwe and other regional countries are on high alert for a tropical cyclone building up in the Mozambican Channel which is expected to cause flooding in parts of the country. margin: 0; Mason, S. J., , and Jury M. R. , 1997: Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. .item01 { 9b,c) in January and February, favoring storm genesis. Thus, conditions over the landmass were, together with those of the south Indian Ocean, very favorable for Eline's intensification near Mozambique and penetration 2000 km inland. About 25% of the January–February–March (JFM) 2000 rainfall over southern Namibia resulted from this system; thus, it made a very significant contribution to the seasonal total. Track of Eline across the south Indian Ocean and southern African mainland with its position marked at 0400 and 1600 LT during the 3 Feb–1 Mar 2000 period. Zimbabweans Still Recovering a Year After Cyclone Idai | Voice of … Because of this variability, it is necessary for local weather forecasters to be cognizant of seasonal forecasts and evolving climate anomalies. Although not feasible for southern African operational agencies under current funding, the prototype ECMWF coupled model experiments (Vitart et al. J. Sci, 97 , 80–86. 3d,e) prior to landfall in Mozambique. Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline's westward track along about 17°S during 7–17 February followed the 28°C surface isotherm. The UKMO global forecast model at the time of Eline had a resolution of 0.83° × 0.55° × 30 levels, or about 90 km by 60 km horizontal resolution at the equator. 9b,c), discouraging a track farther south into the SWIO as is usual. PLOWES Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA SUMMARY After severe wind damage by Cyclone Eline in February 2000, a survey of nearly 200 fallen tree Mauritius uses NWP products obtained from the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) and Méteo France as well as persistence, climatology, and SST observations. Together with the hurricane warnings issued on 16–17 February, they helped in reducing damage to eastern Madagascar as Eline crossed the country on 17–18 February. In fact, the westward track of Eline across the Mozambique Channel corresponded to the tongue of warmest SST between Madagascar and the mainland evident in Fig. The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. Jury, M. R., 1993: A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. Large areas of southern Africa received one to two standard deviations above average rainfall in December 1999 and January 2000. This evidence indicates that local forecasters should keep informed of local land surface and SST conditions as well as current La Niña state, given the evidence of their influence on inland penetration of SWIO TCs. 4e), and this continued the next day (Fig. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. Note that less than 5% of TCs occurring in the SWIO over the last 50 years have actually made landfall on the east coast of southern Africa. 6d). Furthermore, the La Niña–induced atmospheric circulation anomalies represented a persistent pattern during late 1999 and early 2000, leading to wetter soils and an anomalously high green vegetation fraction, thereby contributing to maintenance of Eline after landfall. 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed to date in the region. Jury, M. R., , Pathack B. , , and Parker B. , 1999: Climatic determinants and statistical prediction of tropical cyclone days in the southwest Indian Ocean. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in The 26 February– 1 March pentad (Fig. Real-time advisory positions produced by La Réunion were used to verify observations of the location of the system. Summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the 1999–2000 Southern Hemisphere season. NCEP reanalyses indicate that most of central and western southern Africa had significant positive soil moisture anomalies in December 1999, and these wetter soil conditions intensified further in January 2000. Andrew Singleton produced some of the figures. At 0400 UTC 29 February, the SAWB issued a heavy rain warning for central and southeast Namibia, timely given that this was the wettest day of the entire summer. Corresponding author address: Dr. Chris Reason, Dept. Dyson, L. L., , and van Heerden J. , 2001: The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. It is difficult to make assessments of forecast accuracy over the mainland since, with the exception of South Africa (SAWB), the forecasts are not archived by the various countries and verification data are not available. Third, easterly winds at 500 hPa of about 10 m s−1 associated with the northern half of the ridge occurred in the southern Mozambique Channel and neighboring SWIO, and acted as a steering current toward and across southern Africa during 14– 28 February (Fig. Given the relative lack of work on TCs in the region, it is important to investigate cases like Eline that have large rainfall impacts and unusual evolutions. During 16–20 February, when southern Namibia had its first major wet spell of the season, the low-level moisture flux (Fig. This precludes detailed assessment for these countries; however, where possible, comments about local forecasts are made. Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides. opacity: 1; Although there were some errors in the predicted speed and intensity of Eline, La Réunion forecasts were generally quite accurate regarding track and landfall position. W. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34. This was Eline's second landfall; it crossed the island of Madagascar on 17/18 February where wind gusts of up to 250 km h−1 were recorded on the east coast at Mahanoro. During El Niño, TC tracks tend to concentrate in the 50°–70°E band just east of Madagascar since the high pressure anomalies centered over the eastern Indian/ Australasian sector are unfavorable for TCs farther east. A scale vector of 200 g kg− 1 m s−1 is shown. This resulted in extensive damage due to heavy rainfall, strong winds and subsequent flooding. Unfortunately, since TCs rarely penetrate inland, such alertness would have been unlikely in most southern African forecast offices. (2002) argued that the highest TC occurrence in the SWIO is located near the region of climatological minimum in thermocline depth, where correlations of this depth with SST are greatest. Stammer, D., and Coauthors, 2003: Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. A summary of the accuracy of La Réunion and Met Office forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Eline over the Indian Ocean is given. 2003) suggest that improved seasonal skill in forecasting the interannual variability in TC tracks and frequency could be used to predict the risk of Mozambican landfall. Over the mainland, almost all countries do not have any NWP capacity, and the challenges and potential solutions for improved forecasting for the region are discussed. RSMC La Réunion, 2002: La Réunion Tropical Cyclone Centre. Regarding direct positional errors, the UKMO means were 146, 276, and 373 km for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, and 116 and 211 km for the 24- and 48-h La Réunion forecasts. Mid- to low-level negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies (Fig. The latter forecast issued a gale warning for Zimbabwe, when in fact ex-Eline maintained intensity as a moderate tropical storm (winds exceeding 61 km h−1) and had tracked farther west than expected. Over southern Namibia, the February and March rainfall were each over two standard deviations above average and JFM 2000 represented by far the wettest season since 1976. These authors present evidence that years with deeper-than-average thermocline depth in the 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E region tend to have more TC in the SWIO than those with shallower thermocline depths. Heming, J. T., 2001: Summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the 1999–2000 Southern Hemisphere season. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. 0000025096 00000 n The La Réunion model forecast had AT mean errors of 70 and 129 km for the 24- and 48-h forecasts (72-h forecasts not available). 0000015934 00000 n These areas included the track of ex-TC Eline across southern Africa, implying that the precursor surface conditions over the land were considerably moister than average. 0000030678 00000 n Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) tracked almost 2000 km across southern Africa toward the cool southeast Atlantic and led to substantial rainfall over arid to semiarid southern Namibia (over two standard deviations above average for these two months and the wettest summer since 1976). About 4 h before Eline made landfall (0200 UTC 22 February), the SAWB advised that there was no immediate threat of heavy rain over northeastern South Africa, although heavy rains were possible within a few days. In particular, we focus on possible influences from the prolonged 1998–2001 La Niña on the evolution of TC Eline. Prog. Elita Chikwati Senior Reporter The potential cyclone threat to Zimbabwe in around a week’s time is still a tropical depression north east of Mauritius and heading towards northern Madagascar, which may well have 100mm to 200mm of rain over this weekend. When in range, La Réunion or Mauritius radar data are also used. width: 100%; La Réunion issued storm and gale warnings well after the storm had tracked inland from the coast and out of their area of responsibility; these were used by the Mozambique and South African forecast offices, which issued warnings during 22–25 February. The model only simulated over 200 mm in a very small area in the low-lying region near the Mozambique border, and the model-predicted region of heavy rainfall did not extend far enough west into northern South Africa. Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. Olivier, J., 1993: Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its trailer << /Size 360 /Info 313 0 R /Root 335 0 R /Prev 536193 /ID[<2f799876b8a47f85ab14491aa176176b>] >> startxref 0 %%EOF 335 0 obj << /Pages 332 0 R /Type /Catalog /Metadata 333 0 R >> endobj 358 0 obj << /S 1395 /Filter /FlateDecode /Length 359 0 R >> stream Four provinces at risk of cyclone Idai - NewZimbabwe.com – The … These scores indicate the improvements available from the UKMO NWP model, particularly with increasing lead time. For example, the 1200 UTC 20 February bulletin forecast slight intensification during the next 12 h and landfall by 1200 UTC 21 February— actual landfall was 42 h later at about 0600 UTC 22 February. The above statistics do not include the track after landfall in Mozambique. 4a,b) helped sustain the landfalling Eline as it tracked farther west (e.g., Jury and Pathack 1991). It has been argued that large-scale precursor synoptic conditions (strong ridge south of the Mozambique Channel, preceding trough over southern Africa, and an easterly steering current at midlevels) promoted the track of Eline. Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. The 24- and 48-h forecasts for centers in northeastern South Africa were for showers and occasional rain. In fact, rapid strengthening occurred during the next 6 h, prompting a hurricane warning to be issued at 1200 UTC with expected landfall within the next 12–24 h. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. 1) and contributed significantly to the semidesert region of southern Namibia having its wettest summer since 1976 and the third wettest of the last 50 years. If a westward steering current existed, then warm SSTs in the SWIO were found by these authors to further promote landfall. 0000007034 00000 n Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Late on 22 February, ex-Eline passed the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 km inland from the channel (Fig. 0000015911 00000 n Soc., 141–174. 1 shows the wind speeds associated with south Indian Ocean storm categories. Digest, 22 , 25–36. The main tool used by La Réunion is an integrated software system (SYNERGIE) that allows the forecaster to build a conceptual model of the real and future state of the atmosphere by overlaying all available observations, radar and satellite imagery, objective analyses and NWP products. In mid-March 2019, a devastating cyclone tore through Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, killing hundreds of people so far and causing massive flooding. It was the worst in half a century. (1999), relatively little work has appeared in the refereed literature. Need to review Zim disaster response, preparedness – NewsDay … Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. 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